DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TTeamCompromisowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
Lion
Scofield · 20 games
Magnussignature
Wisper · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
TeamCompromiso
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 4 games
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
535 picks · 735 bans
Muerta
433 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 704 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
385 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 678 bans
Magnus
382 picks · 1026 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 510 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:38
Heroic 72%TeamCompromiso 28%
The model gave 72% on Heroic — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuma
BrewmasterAdrx
TerrorbladeWisper
SlardarDaaD-
Monkey King4nalog
WindrangerGenek
TuskMatthew
WarlockPanda
RingmasterKJ
Game 2prediction missed15:37
Heroic 71%TeamCompromiso 29%
The model gave 71% on Heroic — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastWisper
Nature's ProphetDaaD-
Monkey KingYuma
PangolierAdrx
Kunkka4nalog
MuertaGenek
RingmasterMatthew
BanePanda
JakiroKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 86%
Series resultTeamCompromiso 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2