DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopter
KJ · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 25 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 19 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 16 games
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 27 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 217 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 638 bans
Batrider
415 picks · 727 bans
Centaur Warrunner
408 picks · 574 bans
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 361 bans
Rubick
394 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 791 bans
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 949 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total87% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:24
Heroic 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordK1
ClinkzAme
Zeus4nalog
ViperXm
Primal BeastDavai
DoomXxs
ClockwerkScofield
MarciXinQ
BaneKJ
EnchantressDy
Game 2prediction correct8:23
Heroic 26%Xtreme Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 25:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautK1
WeaverAme
PangolierDavai
SniperXm
Timbersaw4nalog
BrewmasterXxs
PugnaKJ
MarciXinQ
GrimstrokeScofield
DisruptorDy
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 87%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2