BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 20 games
Leshracsignature
Wisper · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 18 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 16 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Hoodwink
fy · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
598 picks · 931 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 422 bans
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 641 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 941 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 653 bans
Mars
384 picks · 532 bans
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total79% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Heroic 34%Xtreme Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 56:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorYuma
AlchemistAme
Ember SpiritTaiLung
TimbersawXxs
MarsWisper
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
TuskKJ
Shadow Shamanfy
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Shadow DemonxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 79%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1