HF vs EZ KATKA — prediction WIS 2 · Dota 2

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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

HFloss 1:2

series probability

53%47%

probability at match start · final 1:2

EZ KATKAwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand Kingsignature

Cloud · 16 games

63%

Miranasignature

ArrOw · 14 games

71%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Cloud · 13 games

54%

Pucksignature

hAze · 13 games

62%

Kunkkaoften banned

TA2000 · 12 games

50%

Shadow Shaman

Kaori · 12 games

58%

Beastmastersignature

Cloud · 10 games

60%

Iosignature

Kaori · 10 games

80%

EZ KATKA

Tiny

Lefitan · 9 games

44%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

Wuiter · 7 games

57%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Lefitan · 6 games

33%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Lukas · 6 games

33%

Puckoften banned

Rvze · 6 games

33%

Shadow Fiendsignature

Rvze · 6 games

83%

Bounty Hunteroften banned

Wuiter · 5 games

60%

Marcioften banned

Lefitan · 5 games

20%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

728 picks · 569 bans

53%

Puck

513 picks · 1033 bans

56%

Dawnbreaker

482 picks · 633 bans

45%

Marci

444 picks · 789 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

374 picks · 414 bans

54%

Snapfire

335 picks · 163 bans

49%

Zeus

328 picks · 381 bans

46%

Razor

310 picks · 590 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% HF

Head-to-head1 – 1

Model total53% HF

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct31:24

HF 53%EZ KATKA 47%

The model gave 53% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 45:11.

Game 2prediction missed19:22

HF 53%EZ KATKA 47%

The model gave 53% on HF — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 40:36.

Game 3prediction missed20:27

HF 53%EZ KATKA 47%

The model gave 53% on HF — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 48:34.

Model check result

Model favoriteHF · 53%

Series resultEZ KATKA 1:2

Series predictionmissed

Accuracy by game1 of 3