Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
Tiny
hAze · 9 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Io
Kaori · 5 games
Hydra
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
kickeed · 5 games
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
374 picks · 599 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 215 bans
Undying
312 picks · 550 bans
Primal Beast
252 picks · 482 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 375 bans
Tusk
232 picks · 140 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 274 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 732 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total64% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:15
HF 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 19:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursaxannii
LycanCloud
BeastmasterMastery
WeaverDinozavrik
Ember Spirittoshiyb
Monkey KingWorick
MiranaSOhY
TuskLefitan
Earth SpiritMuka
SilencerHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct27:29
HF 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenxannii
BroodmotherCloud
Tusktoshiyb
LifestealerDinozavrik
Centaur WarrunnerMastery
ZeusWorick
HoodwinkMuka
SnapfireHappyDyurara
SilencerSOhY
RikiLefitan
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 64%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2