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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techies
weebian · 9 games
56%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Mirana
SOhY · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 6 games
17%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
SOhY · 5 games
40%

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 24 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 12 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 11 games
73%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 9 games
89%
Silencer
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
89%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 8 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
563 picks · 370 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 504 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 427 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
387 picks · 455 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
367 picks · 355 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 171 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
299 picks · 189 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 726 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 79%
Hero pool strength68% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total89% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:34
HF 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by HF in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerxannii
44% · 95 games55% · 275 games
LinaKami
Lina
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetActor
51% · 161 game50% · 204 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Leshrac
Leshracerase
47% · 173 games49% · 104 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Rubick
Rubickweebian
48% · 334 games47% · 144 games
EnchantressLefitan
Enchantress
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSOhY
54% · 225 games54% · 261 game
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct5:24
HF 23%Hydra 77%
The model gave 77% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaxannii
57% · 132 games51% · 131 game
PudgeKami
Pudge
Batrider
Batridererase
45% · 180 games54% · 114 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
48% · 196 games50% · 142 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkweebian
43% · 164 games55% · 231 game
Treant ProtectorLefitan
Treant Protector
Undying
UndyingSOhY
49% · 143 games49% · 197 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct13:22
HF 24%Hydra 76%
The model gave 76% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 27:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinxannii
48% · 94 games55% · 174 games
LinaKami
Lina
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetActor
49% · 184 games53% · 230 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Kunkka
Kunkkaerase
43% · 157 games54% · 242 games
TuskWorick
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorweebian
50% · 275 games47% · 146 games
Keeper of the LightLefitan
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressSOhY
47% · 222 games54% · 140 games
UndyingHappyDyurara
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 89%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3