1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MooN teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
702 picks · 513 bans
Puck
505 picks · 983 bans
Dawnbreaker
422 picks · 531 bans
Marci
391 picks · 716 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 196 bans
Winter Wyvern
334 picks · 332 bans
Zeus
302 picks · 324 bans
Razor
291 picks · 601 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:23
HF 38%MooN team 62%
The model gave 62% on MooN team — the game was taken by HF in 30:18.
Game 2prediction missed13:37
HF 38%MooN team 62%
The model gave 62% on MooN team — the game was taken by HF in 43:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 62%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2