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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Sexywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
SOhY · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techies
weebian · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
SOhY · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
weebian · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 7 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%

Team Sexy

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
9Class · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
788 picks · 533 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 403 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 441 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
529 picks · 571 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
429 picks · 701 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
400 picks · 293 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
395 picks · 778 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 827 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:17
HF 40%Team Sexy 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 27:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracerase
53% · 133 games54% · 105 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
38% · 55 games46% · 26 games
HuskarMoonlight
Huskar
Primal Beast
Primal BeastActor
52% · 121 game50% · 208 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Io
IoHeaven
57% · 55 games40% · 37 games
Elder TitanHduo
Elder Titan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSOhY
49% · 175 games53% · 163 games
Disruptor9Class
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct7:29
HF 38%Team Sexy 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 26:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckerase
53% · 252 games59% · 188 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinnesfeer
36% · 74 games48% · 31 game
Anti-Mage7jesu
Anti-Mage
Broodmother
BroodmotherActor
51% · 117 games60% · 170 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
49% · 254 games50% · 305 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Lich
LichSOhY
40% · 58 games44% · 61 game
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 69%
Series resultTeam Sexy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2