Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
High Coast Esports
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
OG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
100 picks · 221 bans
Mars
95 picks · 196 bans
Earth Spirit
88 picks · 68 bans
Void Spirit
76 picks · 131 bans
Phoenix
70 picks · 77 bans
Undying
62 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
61 picks · 32 bans
Wraith King
61 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% High Coast Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:30
High Coast Esports 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on High Coast Esports — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCharlie
Phantom AssassinMidOne
BloodseekerChessie
Nature's ProphetCeb
Void SpiritSupream^
OmniknightTopson
Shadow DemonEra
Phoenixn0tail
Witch DoctorXibbe
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Game 2prediction missed24:39
High Coast Esports 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on High Coast Esports — the game was taken by OG in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCharlie
MorphlingTopson
PuckSupream^
RikiMidOne
MarsChessie
Nyx AssassinCeb
Skywrath MageEra
Earth SpiritSaksa
Shadow DemonXibbe
Undyingn0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteHigh Coast Esports · 52%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2