EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
High Coast Esportswin 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Prosti Esliloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
High Coast Esports
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
378 picks · 796 bans
Void Spirit
351 picks · 476 bans
Mars
299 picks · 529 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 227 bans
Death Prophet
267 picks · 427 bans
Rubick
249 picks · 147 bans
Keeper of the Light
234 picks · 490 bans
Wraith King
230 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% High Coast Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Prosti Esli
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:16
High Coast Esports 29%Prosti Esli 71%
The model gave 71% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 31:36.
Game 2prediction missed24:34
High Coast Esports 29%Prosti Esli 71%
The model gave 71% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 44:13.
Game 3prediction missed13:30
High Coast Esports 29%Prosti Esli 71%
The model gave 71% on Prosti Esli — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 42:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteProsti Esli · 71%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3