ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hininywin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ZWZolka Warriorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hininy
Anti-Mageoften banned
islA · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
islA · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
islA · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
islA · 2 games
Luna
islA · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
islA · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
islA · 1 game
Zolka Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 425 bans
Lion
264 picks · 233 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 447 bans
Vengeful Spirit
258 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 341 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 708 bans
Magnus
240 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Zolka Warriors
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Hininy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:34
Hininy 57%Zolka Warriors 43%
The model gave 57% on Hininy — the game was taken by Hininy in 28:53.
Game 2prediction correct40:25
Hininy 57%Zolka Warriors 43%
The model gave 57% on Hininy — the game was taken by Hininy in 34:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteHininy · 57%
Series resultHininy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2