Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
443 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
423 picks · 585 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 702 bans
Mars
347 picks · 610 bans
Earth Spirit
321 picks · 307 bans
Grimstroke
296 picks · 259 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 186 bans
Phoenix
280 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:29
Hippomaniacs 21%Chicken Fighters 79%
The model gave 79% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 22:57.
Game 2prediction correct24:44
Hippomaniacs 21%Chicken Fighters 79%
The model gave 79% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 30:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 79%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2