Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Slot Seekerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hippomaniacs
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Slot Seekers
Ogre Magisignature
Flash · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 5 games
Bane
Flash · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
258 picks · 364 bans
Tidehunter
258 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 598 bans
Bane
224 picks · 159 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 254 bans
Lion
214 picks · 101 bans
Lina
213 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
206 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Slot Seekers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Slot Seekers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:44
Hippomaniacs 46%Slot Seekers 54%
The model gave 54% on Slot Seekers — the game was taken by Slot Seekers in 52:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaPanda
JuggernautCoblackk
43% · 17 games
Kunkkantakii
59% · 47 games
PangolierZipZaper
37% · 15 games
SilencerFlash
Game 2prediction correct34:40
Hippomaniacs 48%Slot Seekers 52%
The model gave 52% on Slot Seekers — the game was taken by Slot Seekers in 43:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerPanda
Naga SirenCoblackk
53% · 47 games
Puckntakii
59% · 35 games
PangolierZipZaper
37% · 34 games
GrimstrokeFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteSlot Seekers · 58%
Series resultSlot Seekers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2