Hippomaniacs vs ViKin.gg — prediction SSS# · Dota 2

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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

Hippomaniacsloss 0:2

series probability

25%75%

probability at match start · final 0:2

ViKin.ggwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hippomaniacs

No games played over 6 months.

ViKin.gg

Puckoften banned

BOOM · 9 games

56%

Earthshakersignature

Aramis · 8 games

75%

Earth Spirit

Aramis · 7 games

14%

Grimstroke

Seleri · 7 games

57%

Beastmasteroften banned

Tobi · 6 games

50%

Enchantresssignature

Seleri · 6 games

67%

Oraclesignature

Seleri · 6 games

67%

Void Spiritoften banned

BOOM · 6 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

314 picks · 636 bans

54%

Void Spirit

291 picks · 364 bans

56%

Mars

255 picks · 434 bans

49%

Earth Spirit

238 picks · 190 bans

49%

Rubick

206 picks · 107 bans

50%

Nyx Assassin

202 picks · 615 bans

61%

Keeper of the Light

197 picks · 397 bans

56%

Phoenix

197 picks · 233 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)27% vs 53%

Hero pool strength54% ViKin.gg

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total75% ViKin.gg

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct9:32

Hippomaniacs 36%ViKin.gg 64%

The model gave 64% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 26:55.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo