Hive- vs Retirement Home — prediction I2ОК · Dota 2

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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

Hive-loss 0:1

series probability

28%72%

probability at match start · final 0:1

RHRetirement Homewin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hive-

Ringmaster

slimeyao · 6 games

50%

Hoodwink

slimeyao · 5 games

20%

Rubick

slimeyao · 5 games

Tiny

byun · 5 games

40%

Enchantressoften banned

kur0patbI4 · 4 games

25%

Phoenixoften banned

kur0patbI4 · 4 games

25%

Chenoften banned

kur0patbI4 · 3 games

67%

Alchemistoften banned

byun · 2 games

100%

Retirement Home

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

606 picks · 389 bans

54%

Rubick

509 picks · 281 bans

50%

Phoenix

480 picks · 578 bans

51%

Tiny

462 picks · 382 bans

49%

Pangolier

418 picks · 586 bans

49%

Puck

342 picks · 948 bans

55%

Tusk

337 picks · 278 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

330 picks · 491 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%

Hero pool strength56% Retirement Home

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total72% Retirement Home

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct33:48

Hive- 36%Retirement Home 64%

The model gave 64% on Retirement Home — the game was taken by Retirement Home in 57:43.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo