Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 16 games
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
553 picks · 488 bans
Beastmaster
442 picks · 1080 bans
Doom
429 picks · 761 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 1011 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 359 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 818 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:29
Hokori 63%Balrogs 37%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by Balrogs in 42:04.
Game 2prediction missed25:20
Hokori 63%Balrogs 37%
The model gave 63% on Hokori — the game was taken by Balrogs in 39:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 63%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2