Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
371 picks · 499 bans
Mars
368 picks · 511 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 481 bans
Death Prophet
282 picks · 429 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 495 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:28
Hokori 32%beastcoast 68%
The model gave 68% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 42:51.
Game 2prediction correct26:25
Hokori 32%beastcoast 68%
The model gave 68% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:07.
Game 3prediction correct41:22
Hokori 32%beastcoast 68%
The model gave 68% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:36.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 68%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3