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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrider
Genek · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Gardick · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 1 game
100%

Lava

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
555k · 6 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Pamplona · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pamplona · 3 games
33%
Sven
Sven
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
555k · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 614 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
392 picks · 428 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 417 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 603 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 353 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
273 picks · 805 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:8
Hokori 59%Lava 41%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverLumière
54% · 66 games49% · 180 games
BatriderPamplona
Batrider
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeVitaly
42% · 40 games46% · 29 games
Omniknight555k
Omniknight
Lion
LionGenek
54% · 93 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGardick
64% · 10 games
Game 2prediction missed26:41
Hokori 59%Lava 41%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Lava in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVitaly
48% · 117 games48% · 276 games
PhoenixPamplona
Phoenix
Morphling
MorphlingLumière
48% · 188 games54% · 284 games
Batrider555k
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaGenek
50% · 88 games
Tusk
TuskGardick
50% · 167 games
Game 3prediction correct31:23
Hokori 61%Lava 39%
The model gave 61% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLumière
50% · 32 games62% · 52 games
Nyx AssassinPamplona
Nyx Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVitaly
53% · 69 games43% · 166 games
Crystal Maiden555k
Crystal Maiden
Pugna
PugnaGardick
54% · 46 games
Lion
LionGenek
42% · 71 game
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 66%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3