Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Snapfireoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Mirana
Tano · 2 games
Rikioften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
141 picks · 318 bans
Mars
140 picks · 255 bans
Void Spirit
123 picks · 176 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 105 bans
Phoenix
111 picks · 119 bans
Keeper of the Light
92 picks · 164 bans
Nyx Assassin
90 picks · 318 bans
Rubick
89 picks · 45 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:29
Hokori 68%Mad Kings 32%
The model gave 68% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 27:02.
Game 2prediction missed5:21
Hokori 68%Mad Kings 32%
The model gave 68% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 18:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 68%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2