DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NGNew Growthloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Hoodwink
Asao · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
payk · 6 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 5 games
Windranger
Lumière · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Largooften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
New Growth
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Baneoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
Hoodwink
Kiri · 1 game
Zeus
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
515 picks · 316 bans
Dark Willow
439 picks · 218 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 308 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 499 bans
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 288 bans
Windranger
280 picks · 132 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:21
Hokori 59%New Growth 41%
The model gave 59% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerLumière
Earth SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
BristlebackVitaly
Skywrath MageKiri
Ember SpiritBenjimon
LargoJimmyCoff666
MiranaGardick
SnapfireDemon
Game 2prediction correct46:25
Hokori 61%New Growth 39%
The model gave 61% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaBenjimon
ViperÑengoflow KELOKE
Storm SpiritLumière
Witch DoctorJimmyCoff666
EnigmaVitaly
Bounty HunterKiri
MiranaGardick
Spirit BreakerDemon
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 70%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2