BTS Pro Series Season 12: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 8 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Magnus
MidOne · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Moon · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 441 bans
Marci
456 picks · 650 bans
Dawnbreaker
360 picks · 479 bans
Puck
344 picks · 778 bans
Death Prophet
300 picks · 495 bans
Winter Wyvern
299 picks · 382 bans
Batrider
253 picks · 820 bans
Dazzle
253 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:16
Hokori 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:18.
Game 2prediction missed48:32
Hokori 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Team SMG in 46:52.
Game 3prediction missed34:40
Hokori 55%Team SMG 45%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Team SMG in 42:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 55%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3