The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tempestwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 569 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1031 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 635 bans
Marci
452 picks · 798 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 415 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 386 bans
Razor
309 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:16
Hokori 68%Tempest 32%
The model gave 68% on Hokori — the game was taken by Tempest in 41:35.
Game 2prediction missed35:8
Hokori 68%Tempest 32%
The model gave 68% on Hokori — the game was taken by Tempest in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 68%
Series resultTempest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2