ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 22 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 21 game
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
607 picks · 463 bans
Puck
430 picks · 925 bans
Mars
366 picks · 594 bans
Snapfire
356 picks · 185 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 466 bans
Dawnbreaker
342 picks · 391 bans
Bane
321 picks · 200 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total84% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Hokori 16%Thunder Awaken 84%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 34:13.
Game 2prediction correct11:48
Hokori 16%Thunder Awaken 84%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:12.
Game 3prediction correct13:42
Hokori 16%Thunder Awaken 84%
The model gave 84% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 84%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3