ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ukumariloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Ukumari
Tiny
Yuma · 12 games
Mirana
Thiolicor · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
4nalog · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yuma · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 9 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
4nalog · 8 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 456 bans
Puck
424 picks · 912 bans
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
Dawnbreaker
333 picks · 379 bans
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:13
Hokori 75%Ukumari 25%
The model gave 75% on Hokori — the game was taken by Ukumari in 26:47.
Game 2prediction missed35:41
Hokori 75%Ukumari 25%
The model gave 75% on Hokori — the game was taken by Ukumari in 37:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 75%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2