The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Brightwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
omoxiloyi · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
Drink · 8 games
Silenceroften banned
Sj · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
Oraclesignature
Sj · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
GaN- · 6 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 8 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 7 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 7 games
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Irving · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
584 picks · 621 bans
Rubick
463 picks · 244 bans
Batrider
427 picks · 813 bans
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 723 bans
Doom
344 picks · 748 bans
Timbersaw
343 picks · 842 bans
Morphling
340 picks · 721 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% Holy Grail
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:19
Holy Grail 56%Team Bright 44%
The model gave 56% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Team Bright in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerSummer
Templar Assassinphoenix
Storm SpiritGaN-
DawnbreakerIrving
Shadow DemonDrink
Elder TitanUndyne_
LichSj
Game 2prediction missed11:14
Holy Grail 52%Team Bright 48%
The model gave 52% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Team Bright in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSummer
Leshracphoenix
Ember SpiritGaN-
TidehunterIrving
RubickDrink
DisruptorUndyne_
WarlockSj
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 61%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2