The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Disillusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Drink · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
Silencer
Sj · 7 games
Oraclesignature
Sj · 6 games
Pugnasignature
Drink · 6 games
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 12 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Eren · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Disruptor
Eren · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Killa · 3 games
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Eren · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
596 picks · 624 bans
Rubick
470 picks · 248 bans
Batrider
427 picks · 827 bans
Spirit Breaker
380 picks · 384 bans
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 733 bans
Doom
345 picks · 764 bans
Timbersaw
345 picks · 843 bans
Morphling
342 picks · 716 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Holy Grail
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:28
Holy Grail 53%Team Disillusion 47%
The model gave 53% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 53:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSummer
IoEren
Ember SpiritGaN-
BatriderDrink
SilencerSj
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Holy Grail 61%Team Disillusion 39%
The model gave 61% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 21:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSummer
LionEren
PangolierGaN-
Dark WillowDrink
ClockwerkSj
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 66%
Series resultHoly Grail 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2