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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Zeroloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Holy Grail

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
GaN- · 5 games
80%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Summer · 4 games
100%

Team Zero

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 4 games
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
zzq · 4 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 3 games
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 3 games
100%
Windranger
Windranger
Cty · 3 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
738 picks · 582 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 524 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
554 picks · 1295 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
551 picks · 1097 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
492 picks · 557 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 953 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1119 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
452 picks · 646 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 82%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:21
Holy Grail 39%Team Zero 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSummer
52% · 166 games50% · 123 games
MorphlingCty
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritGaN-
55% · 179 games52% · 176 games
Void Spirit7e
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixDrink
44% · 109 games45% · 28 games
Night StalkerBEYOND
Night Stalker
Silencer
SilencerSj
48% · 212 games52% · 169 games
Techiesiceice
Techies
49% · 170 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed33:10
Holy Grail 40%Team Zero 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSummer
47% · 56 games36% · 36 games
WeaverCty
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderGaN-
52% · 293 games51% · 207 games
Pangolier7e
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDrink
47% · 71 game59% · 49 games
Dark SeerBEYOND
Dark Seer
Pugna
PugnaSj
50% · 126 games47% · 165 games
Techiesiceice
Techies
54% · 89 games
Spirit Breakerzzq
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed33:11
Holy Grail 41%Team Zero 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSummer
55% · 176 games51% · 101 game
AlchemistCty
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierGaN-
54% · 390 games44% · 117 games
TimbersawBEYOND
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDrink
54% · 79 games44% · 56 games
Winter Wyvern7e
Winter Wyvern
Pugna
PugnaSj
47% · 129 games50% · 188 games
Enchantresszzq
Enchantress
48% · 312 games
Rubickiceice
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 68%
Series resultHoly Grail 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3