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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hong shi zhang zuiloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
REKONIXwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hong shi zhang zui

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
TK · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
Undyne_ · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
100%

REKONIX

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dalul · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Varizh · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
inYourdreaM · 4 games
100%
Bane
Bane
Varizh · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
353 picks · 324 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 831 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
304 picks · 154 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
289 picks · 325 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 246 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
270 picks · 124 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
265 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hong shi zhang zui 53%REKONIX 47%
The model gave 53% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by REKONIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 53%
Series resultREKONIX 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1