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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hong shi zhang zuiloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Roar Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hong shi zhang zui

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
TK · 11 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TK · 7 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 5 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%

Roar Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RedPanda · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 5 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
427 picks · 397 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 205 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 897 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
284 picks · 139 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 673 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 840 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:24
Hong shi zhang zui 53%Roar Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDust
51% · 295 games46% · 101 game
AbaddonUlu
Abaddon
Timbersaw
TimbersawBEYOND
57% · 181 game48% · 202 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Pugna
PugnaUndyne_
51% · 239 games56% · 184 games
Magnus生死
Magnus
Ringmaster
RingmasterTK
47% · 295 games48% · 209 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
45% · 314 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed
Hong shi zhang zui 55%Roar Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Roar Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 55%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2