DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHSHong shi zhang zuiwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TThrivingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hong shi zhang zui
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
TK · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 2 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 1 game
Hoodwink
TK · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 712 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
261 picks · 245 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 665 bans
Pugna
249 picks · 264 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
Marci
245 picks · 645 bans
Dark Willow
243 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:5
Hong shi zhang zui 78%Thriving 22%
The model gave 78% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 15:26.
Game 2prediction correct34:12
Hong shi zhang zui 78%Thriving 22%
The model gave 78% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 27:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 78%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2