Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs predictionHHorizonloss 0:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
IHC Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
Miranasignature
Se · 7 games
Rubick
ace12 · 7 games
Disruptor
Se · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 4 games
Doomoften banned
423 · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
996 picks · 695 bans
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 930 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 410 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 409 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1210 bans
Clockwerk
497 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:45
Horizon 46%IHC Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 41:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 54%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1