ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionHHotHeadedRebornloss 0:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
NNextNextwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HotHeadedReborn
Brewmasteroften banned
Zore · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 1 game
NextNext
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% HotHeadedReborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% NextNext
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
HotHeadedReborn 38%NextNext 62%
The model gave 62% on NextNext — the game was taken by NextNext.
Model check result
Model favoriteNextNext · 62%
Series resultNextNext 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1