Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HOYOwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOYO
Pangolieroften banned
Forev · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
Ogre Magi
boombell · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
Axe
Forev · 2 games
Clockwerk
boombell · 2 games
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 8 games
Mirana
Lym- · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 4 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 4 games
Iooften banned
db- · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
woMy · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
228 picks · 490 bans
Void Spirit
211 picks · 265 bans
Mars
202 picks · 362 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 150 bans
Keeper of the Light
161 picks · 262 bans
Phoenix
157 picks · 180 bans
Nyx Assassin
152 picks · 493 bans
Wraith King
142 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:28
HOYO 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMeracle
Puckdb-
Void SpiritFearless
HuskarMamangDaya
RubickJhocam
MarswoMy
Clockwerkboombell
EarthshakerLym-
Game 2prediction correct44:40
HOYO 56%Army Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 55:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenFearless
Anti-Magedb-
Outworld DestroyerMeracle
Sand KingMamangDaya
PangolierJhocam
PugnawoMy
Ogre Magiboombell
MiranaLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 60%
Series resultHOYO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2