Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HOYOloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Omega Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOYO
Pangolieroften banned
Forev · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 4 games
Ogre Magi
boombell · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
boombell · 3 games
Axe
Forev · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Omega Esports
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 6 games
Grimstroke
cml · 4 games
Lion
cml · 4 games
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Brewmaster
Bok · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
156 picks · 275 bans
Puck
151 picks · 353 bans
Earth Spirit
140 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
132 picks · 193 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 135 bans
Keeper of the Light
104 picks · 188 bans
Nyx Assassin
104 picks · 352 bans
Rubick
100 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 60%
Series resultOmega Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect