PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HunterZwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDemoniosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HunterZ
Hoodwink
Mjz · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 7 games
Snapfire
Mjz · 7 games
Slardar
Vitaly · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Bristleback
Lumière · 3 games
Clockwerk
Prada · 3 games
Demonios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
448 picks · 421 bans
Snapfire
438 picks · 222 bans
Puck
351 picks · 932 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 148 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 225 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 660 bans
Queen of Pain
280 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% HunterZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:35
HunterZ 74%Demonios 26%
The model gave 74% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 29:34.
Game 2prediction correct37:10
HunterZ 74%Demonios 26%
The model gave 74% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 28:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHunterZ · 74%
Series resultHunterZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2