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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HunterZwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HunterZ

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 11 games
36%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
89%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 5 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lumière · 5 games
80%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Vitaly · 4 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 19 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
45%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 11 games
73%
Underlord
Underlord
pma · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
532 picks · 272 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
486 picks · 495 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
372 picks · 1006 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 379 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
313 picks · 147 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
309 picks · 151 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 529 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 497 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% HunterZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
HunterZ 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLumière
56% · 201 game42% · 129 games
Ursarubikon155
Ursa
Undying
UndyingVitaly
55% · 107 games49% · 90 games
Night Stalkerkrol9ash
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroPrada
52% · 212 games48% · 246 games
Dragon Knightgbc
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderMjz
54% · 304 games43% · 154 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
47% · 205 games
DisruptorHyugadoto
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct34:25
HunterZ 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 53:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerLumière
61% · 132 games48% · 285 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierVitaly
45% · 401 game52% · 227 games
Morphlingrubikon155
Morphling
Disruptor
DisruptorPrada
50% · 259 games47% · 227 games
Marskrol9ash
Mars
Tiny
TinyMjz
49% · 416 games49% · 174 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
49% · 295 games
WarlockHyugadoto
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteHunterZ · 51%
Series resultHunterZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2