ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionHHuskyloss 0:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:1
HellRaiserswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Husky
No games played over 6 months.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 978 bans
Lion
369 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 591 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 649 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 223 bans
Void Spirit
286 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Husky
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 76%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect