Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
cybercatsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 8 games
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 6 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 6 games
cybercats
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Disruptor
Fezor · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fezor · 1 game
Jakiro
Fezor · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
273 picks · 407 bans
Tidehunter
268 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 641 bans
Bane
243 picks · 181 bans
Weaver
223 picks · 425 bans
Lina
217 picks · 474 bans
Lion
209 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
204 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:30
Hydra 59%cybercats 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:01:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAskold
RikiShigetsu
Wraith KingKami
LinaUSHUSHUSH
UnderlordBlizzy
JakiroFezor
Dark WillowMuka
DisruptorZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 65%
Series resultHydra 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1