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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
50%

DMS

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daxak · 19 games
47%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
rincyq · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
prblms · 13 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Daxak · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hduo · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 640 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
404 picks · 450 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
345 picks · 428 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 502 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 627 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
315 picks · 170 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 376 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
281 picks · 292 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% DMS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:7
Hydra 42%DMS 58%
The model gave 58% on DMS — the game was taken by Hydra in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingActor
55% · 148 games52% · 136 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Primal Beast
Primal Beastselfhate
50% · 305 games46% · 99 games
Bristlebackemptiness
Bristleback
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAstral
52% · 276 games47% · 280 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
46% · 104 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
46% · 110 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed20:3
Hydra 44%DMS 56%
The model gave 56% on DMS — the game was taken by Hydra in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerActor
52% · 90 games50% · 225 games
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinyselfhate
55% · 460 games42% · 120 games
Beastmasteremptiness
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAstral
52% · 361 game46% · 194 games
Puckmellojul
Puck
53% · 205 games
Lionprblms
Lion
42% · 167 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 66%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2