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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 27 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
70%
Bane
Bane
Muka · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 19 games
53%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
63%
Weaver
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
50%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 652 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 474 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 276 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
423 picks · 579 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 630 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 458 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 565 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 595 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:36
Hydra 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by HF in 50:39.
Game 2prediction correct41:26
Hydra 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:53.
Game 3prediction correct58:26
Hydra 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 57%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3