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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 11 games
45%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Lefitan · 7 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
kickeed · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 4 games
50%

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 33 games
58%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 24 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 18 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 16 games
56%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
47%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
366 picks · 589 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
332 picks · 233 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
301 picks · 534 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
250 picks · 489 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 389 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
243 picks · 157 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 286 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
204 picks · 714 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:25
Hydra 55%IVY 45%
The model gave 55% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerDinozavrik
58% · 97 games46% · 95 games
Lunapio65
Luna
Invoker
InvokerWorick
55% · 133 games55% · 90 games
BatriderMo13ei
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
53% · 206 games46% · 96 games
TidehunterMax
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskLefitan
47% · 224 games44% · 84 games
Treant Protectorjmn-
Treant Protector
Silencer
SilencerHappyDyurara
40% · 72 games53% · 367 games
TinyQupe
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed46:51
Hydra 56%IVY 44%
The model gave 56% on Hydra — the game was taken by IVY in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderWorick
47% · 208 games51% · 87 games
Lunapio65
Luna
Sniper
SniperDinozavrik
47% · 60 games53% · 507 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
56% · 279 games49% · 241 game
SnapfireQupe
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskLefitan
49% · 286 games44% · 253 games
MarsMax
Mars
Marci
MarciHappyDyurara
51% · 352 games53% · 97 games
Treant Protectorjmn-
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct34:28
Hydra 56%IVY 44%
The model gave 56% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 45:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidDinozavrik
51% · 127 games40% · 78 games
Sniperpio65
Sniper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
57% · 218 games45% · 310 games
Death ProphetMax
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
54% · 181 game52% · 237 games
TuskMo13ei
Tusk
Tiny
TinyLefitan
52% · 448 games46% · 335 games
SnapfireQupe
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
55% · 123 games48% · 137 games
Treant Protectorjmn-
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 59%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3