Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:1
LBlabel bmdwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Zayac · 6 games
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 6 games
label bmd
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
269 picks · 400 bans
Tidehunter
267 picks · 398 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 636 bans
Bane
242 picks · 179 bans
Lina
220 picks · 480 bans
Weaver
218 picks · 413 bans
Lion
214 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:32
Hydra 71%label bmd 29%
The model gave 71% on Hydra — the game was taken by label bmd in 50:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 71%
Series resultlabel bmd 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1