European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 8 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
mellojul · 6 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 6 games
Earthshakersignature
MaTson · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
452 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 586 bans
Phantom Assassin
311 picks · 623 bans
Ringmaster
309 picks · 141 bans
Muerta
287 picks · 163 bans
Bristleback
284 picks · 531 bans
Terrorblade
283 picks · 508 bans
Beastmaster
281 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 21%
Hero pool strength59% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Hydra 62%Level UP 38%
The model gave 62% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 24:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetselfhate
PuckMaTson
Storm Spiritmellojul
Faceless Voidrincyq
BristlebackActor
Dark Seerkrol9ash
37% · 56 games
LeshracAtoufix
49% · 203 games
Jakirojesv
Game 2prediction correct31:27
Hydra 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenselfhate
Tinyrincyq
Ember Spiritmellojul
PuckMaTson
UnderlordActor
Dark Seerkrol9ash
48% · 135 games
TuskAtoufix
65% · 41 game
Ringmasterjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 68%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2