Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 12 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 11 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 8 games
Lycansignature
Cloud · 7 games
Warlock
kickeed · 7 games
Matreshka Team
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Lagoona · 1 game
Rubick
Lagoona · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
368 picks · 344 bans
Tusk
325 picks · 301 bans
Marci
271 picks · 512 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 567 bans
Undying
250 picks · 464 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 598 bans
Shadow Fiend
220 picks · 343 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 80%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Hydra 59%Matreshka Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKami
WeaverRetsu
LycanCloud
Doomegxrdemxn
BatriderWorick
RubickLagoona
Keeper of the LightLefitan
UndyingJANTER
ClockwerkHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction correct46:16
Hydra 61%Matreshka Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerKami
MorphlingRetsu
RazorCloud
Death Prophetegxrdemxn
Keeper of the LightLefitan
TinyLagoona
TuskWorick
SilencerJANTER
MiranaHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 67%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2