Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Muka · 28 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 27 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 23 games
Weaver
Muka · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Askold · 19 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 18 games
Nemiga Gaming
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 27 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 20 games
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 19 games
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 18 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 18 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 628 bans
Tiny
448 picks · 494 bans
Bane
446 picks · 281 bans
Sand King
404 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 796 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 552 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 556 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total51% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:21
Hydra 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
EnigmaTheChosenOne
Phoenixkickeed
KunkkaKiritych
52% · 32 games
UndyingVANSKOR
59% · 45 games
Shadow ShamanHeaven
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Hydra 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaAskold
LunaKiritych
Snapfirekickeed
VisageTheChosenOne
60% · 29 games
Shadow ShamanHeaven
53% · 103 games
ClockwerkVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 51%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2