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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 18 games
72%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 12 games
75%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 12 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Kami · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lefitan · 12 games
58%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
791 picks · 587 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 437 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 383 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
424 picks · 707 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
413 picks · 595 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
412 picks · 966 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 295 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 907 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 82%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:21
Hydra 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 58:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
54% · 106 games47% · 160 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderWorick
48% · 251 game54% · 84 games
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Doom
DoomCloud
51% · 342 games51% · 453 games
TinyMalr1ne
Tiny
Techies
TechiesLil
51% · 94 games50% · 134 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
EnchantressHappyDyurara
45% · 318 games50% · 280 games
Clockwerkso bad
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed33:10
Hydra 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
52% · 144 games51% · 266 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
56% · 159 games47% · 130 games
Bloodseekerv1olent-
Bloodseeker
Alchemist
AlchemistCloud
49% · 139 games52% · 225 games
Monkey KingHellscream
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickLil
45% · 495 games47% · 191 game
Silencerso bad
Silencer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHappyDyurara
51% · 146 games51% · 271 game
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2