Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
No Sorrywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 29 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
Bane
Muka · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 19 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 33 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 29 games
Tinyoften banned
layme · 26 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 24 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 473 bans
Bane
450 picks · 276 bans
Sand King
423 picks · 579 bans
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 632 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total50% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:18
Hydra 50%No Sorry 50%
The model gave 50% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
Templar AssassinWorick
Snapfirekickeed
UrsaKami
50% · 238 games
MarsLastHero-
49% · 126 games
Hoodwinky0nd
44% · 55 games
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Game 2prediction correct22:41
Hydra 48%No Sorry 52%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAskold
Templar AssassinKami
Snapfirekickeed
Storm SpiritWorick
51% · 255 games
MarsLastHero-
54% · 77 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
54% · 124 games
Hoodwinky0nd
Game 3prediction missed16:34
Hydra 50%No Sorry 50%
The model gave 50% on Hydra — the game was taken by No Sorry in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
JuggernautKami
Dawnbreakerkickeed
MarsLastHero-
53% · 78 games
Storm SpiritWorick
36% · 24 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
53% · 99 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 50%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3