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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Novaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
54%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 18 games
67%

Nova

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
so bad · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
foryou · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 4 games
75%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
foryou · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
430 picks · 272 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
411 picks · 556 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 435 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
343 picks · 709 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 456 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
310 picks · 415 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
273 picks · 402 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
261 picks · 405 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength63% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:19
Hydra 67%Nova 33%
The model gave 67% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKami
50% · 156 games52% · 179 games
Wraith Kingparadise'
Wraith King
Invoker
InvokerAskold
52% · 133 games47% · 230 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBlizzy
50% · 155 games49% · 255 games
PangolierBb3px
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMuka
50% · 158 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
52% · 62 games
Game 2prediction missed13:28
Hydra 68%Nova 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Nova in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKami
43% · 93 games59% · 53 games
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Phantom Lancer
Invoker
InvokerAskold
43% · 165 games50% · 153 games
Storm Spiritforyou
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingBlizzy
54% · 162 games52% · 352 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMuka
49% · 56 games
Undying
UndyingZayac
46% · 82 games
Game 3prediction correct44:22
Hydra 66%Nova 34%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
45% · 242 games56% · 158 games
Wraith Kingparadise'
Wraith King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAskold
45% · 218 games50% · 308 games
Ember Spiritforyou
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingBlizzy
49% · 203 games52% · 438 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMuka
45% · 214 games
Chen
ChenZayac
56% · 27 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 80%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3