Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 23 games
Bane
Muka · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 19 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Weaver
Muka · 18 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 16 games
PSG Quest
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 8 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 8 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 7 games
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 648 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 485 bans
Bane
448 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
424 picks · 573 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 621 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 551 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 803 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total67% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:39
Hydra 61%PSG Quest 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaAskold
PangolierNo!ob
Enchantresskickeed
Shadow ShamanEixn
49% · 123 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct55:20
Hydra 55%PSG Quest 45%
The model gave 55% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAskold
Death ProphetNo!ob
Grimstrokekickeed
Shadow ShamanOmaR
54% · 74 games
ClockwerkEixn
Game 3prediction correct67:49
Hydra 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:03:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Pugnakickeed
Shadow DemonEixn
50% · 35 games
Earth SpiritOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 67%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3