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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Türkiyeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%

Team Türkiye

Lich
Lich
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jeezy · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
G.T.I · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 572 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 526 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 571 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 405 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
364 picks · 179 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
364 picks · 274 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 717 bans
53%
Invoker
Invoker
322 picks · 919 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Türkiye
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:27
Hydra 53%Team Türkiye 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerselfhate
44% · 22 games42% · 8 games
Outworld DestroyerG.T.I
Outworld Destroyer
Monkey King
Monkey KingEthereal
45% · 78 games53% · 211 games
Shadow DemonStoic
Shadow Demon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
46% · 126 games54% · 252 games
TinyJeezy
Tiny
Batrider
Batriderprblms
52% · 245 games
Game 2prediction correct42:21
Hydra 54%Team Türkiye 46%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEthereal
43% · 75 games53% · 205 games
Primal BeastG.T.I
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey Kingselfhate
56% · 102 games46% · 244 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Bristleback
BristlebackActor
53% · 78 games52% · 59 games
LichStoic
Lich
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkprblms
47% · 253 games
Game 3prediction correct40:13
Hydra 54%Team Türkiye 46%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
52% · 67 games43% · 99 games
LinaG.T.I
Lina
Tiny
TinyEthereal
60% · 168 games47% · 219 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Tidehunter
TidehunterActor
57% · 32 games41% · 50 games
LichStoic
Lich
Muerta
Muertaprblms
55% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 56%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3